Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30 Page 31 Page 32 Page 33 Page 34 Page 35 Page 36 Page 37 Page 38 Page 39 Page 40 Page 41 Page 42 Page 43 Page 44 Page 45 Page 46 Page 47 Page 48 Page 49 Page 50 Page 51 Page 52 Page 53 Page 54 Page 55 Page 56 Page 57 Page 58 Page 59 Page 60 Page 61 Page 62 Page 63 Page 64 Page 65 Page 66 Page 67 Page 68 Page 69 Page 70 Page 71 Page 72 Page 73 Page 74 Page 75 Page 76 Page 77 Page 78 Page 79 Page 80 Page 81 Page 82 Page 83 Page 84 Page 85 Page 86 Page 87 Page 88 Page 89 Page 90 Page 91 Page 92 Page 93 Page 94 Page 95 Page 96 Page 97 Page 98 Page 99 Page 100 Page 101 Page 102 Page 103 Page 104 Page 105 Page 106 Page 107 Page 10887 CHAPTER 5 | TR ACKING THE IMPACT OF THE GREAT RECESSION the expected probability of working past age 65, which increased from 39.6% to 49.5%. HRS also assesses work plans by asking, “Do you plan to stop working altogether or reduce work hours at a particular date or age, have you not given it much thought, or what?” The econom- ic environment influences retirement plans, but personal factors such as the amount of personal debt and characteristics of the individual’s work environment are also strong predictors of work plans (Szinovacz et al. 2013). Szinovacz et al. (2015) construct a model that captures several levels of influence, such as changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the unemployment rate between 2006 and 2008. Mid-level factors include the size and degree of unionization, pension and health insurance ben- efits, and opportunities to work part-time at the firms HRS participants work for. The model also includes individual characteristics like personal income and wealth, health status, tenure on the job, hours worked, and stressfulness and physical demands of the job. They find that unionization, having a DB pension, job stress, and onset of a new health condition are all associated with plans to stop working at younger ages. On the other hand, flexibility in work hours is associated with plans to continue working. These effects may have changed as the recession evolved, which can be investigated using data from subsequent waves in the HRS. While work expectations generally predict actual work outcomes, it may be that the increase in expectations of working past age 62 and past age 65 found over the recession will prove to be an overstatement of work outcomes. Figures 5-2a and b show that there has been a slow upward trend since 1992 in expectations of working past the early (age 62) and normal (age 65) retirement ages for Social Security. The 2008 wave of HRS saw a big increase, followed by a decline back to the trend line in 2010. 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 FIGURE 5-2a  Average expected probability of working full time past age 62 for currently employed persons aged 55 to 60: 1998 to 2014 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Men Women FIGURE 5-2b  Average expected probability of working full time past age 65 for currently employed persons aged 55 to 60: 1998 to 2014 Source: HRS 1998-2014. Flexibility in work hours is associated with plans to continue working