Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30 Page 31 Page 32 Page 33 Page 34 Page 35 Page 36 Page 37 Page 38 Page 39 Page 40 Page 41 Page 42 Page 43 Page 44 Page 45 Page 46 Page 47 Page 48 Page 49 Page 50 Page 51 Page 52 Page 53 Page 54 Page 55 Page 56 Page 57 Page 58 Page 59 Page 60 Page 61 Page 62 Page 63 Page 64 Page 65 Page 66 Page 67 Page 68 Page 69 Page 70 Page 71 Page 72 Page 73 Page 74 Page 75 Page 76 Page 77 Page 78 Page 79 Page 80 Page 81 Page 82 Page 83 Page 84 Page 85 Page 86 Page 87 Page 88 Page 89 Page 90 Page 91 Page 92 Page 93 Page 94 Page 95 Page 96 Page 97 Page 98 Page 99 Page 100 Page 101 Page 102 Page 103 Page 104 Page 105 Page 106 Page 107 Page 108AGING IN THE 21S T CENTURY FEM FIGURE 1-6  Number of non-disabled Americans in a delayed aging scenario: 2010-2060 Source: Goldman et al. (2016). 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Delayed aging: non-disabled Baseline: non-disabled Millions of people The Future Elderly Model (FEM) As people age, they are much less likely to fall victim to a single isolated disease. Instead, competing causes of death more directly associated with biological aging cluster and elevate mortality risk, as well as create the frailty and disability profile that can accompany old age. The FEM is designed to illuminate these complex dynamics and to explicate the consequences of social policy, social forces, and biomedicine for health, health spending and health care delivery. The Health and Retirement Study is the primary data source for the FEM. The model takes into account initial demographic characteristics and health conditions to project medical spending, health conditions and behaviors, disability status, and quality of life well into the future.   Scientific advances suggest that slowing the aging process may be a realistic goal. Using the FEM, Goldman et al. (2013, 2016) compare a baseline with a hypothetical delayed aging scenario in terms of the impact on longevity, disability, and major entitlement program costs. Delayed aging could increase life expectancy by an additional 2.2 years, most of which would be spent in good health. The economic value of delayed aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over 50 years.