b'AGING IN THE 21ST CENTURY FEMThe Future Elderly Model (FEM)As people age, they are much less likely to fall victim to a single isolated disease. Instead, competing causes of death more directly associated with biological aging cluster and elevate mortality risk, as well as create the frailty and disability profile that can accompany old age.Scientific advances suggest that slowing The FEM is designed to illuminate thesethe aging process may be a realistic complex dynamics and to explicate thegoal. Using the FEM, Goldman et al. consequences of social policy, social(2013, 2016) compare a baseline with forces, and biomedicine for health,a hypothetical delayed aging scenarioFIGURE 1-6Number of non-disabled health spending and health care delivery.in terms of the impact on longevity,Americans in a delayed aging scenario: 2010-2060 The Health and Retirement Study isdisability, and major entitlement programSource: Goldman et al. (2016).the primary data source for the FEM.costs. Delayed aging could increase life90Millions of peopleThe model takes into account initialexpectancy by an additional 2.2 years, 80demographic characteristics and healthmost of which would be spent in good conditions to project medical spending,health. The economic value of delayed70health conditions and behaviors,aging is estimated to be $7.1 trillion over 60disability status, and quality of life well50 years. 50into the future. 40302010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060Delayed aging: non-disabledBaseline: non-disabled'