Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 20 Page 21 Page 22 Page 23 Page 24 Page 25 Page 26 Page 27 Page 28 Page 29 Page 30 Page 31 Page 32 Page 33 Page 34 Page 35 Page 36 Page 37 Page 38 Page 39 Page 40 Page 41 Page 42 Page 43 Page 44 Page 45 Page 46 Page 47 Page 48 Page 49 Page 50 Page 51 Page 52 Page 53 Page 54 Page 55 Page 56 Page 57 Page 58 Page 59 Page 60 Page 61 Page 62 Page 63 Page 64 Page 65 Page 66 Page 67 Page 68 Page 69 Page 70 Page 71 Page 72 Page 73 Page 74 Page 75 Page 76 Page 77 Page 78 Page 79 Page 80 Page 81 Page 82 Page 83 Page 84 Page 85 Page 86 Page 87 Page 88 Page 89 Page 90 Page 91 Page 92 Page 93 Page 94 Page 95 Page 96 Page 97 Page 98 Page 99 Page 100 Page 101 Page 102 Page 103 Page 104 Page 105 Page 106 Page 107 Page 108CH APTER 2 49 Trends in Retirement Timing Two studies comparing HRS data with data from the 1970s show how the timing of retirement has shifted over the past 30 years (Gustman et al. 1995; Gustman and Steinmeier 2001). The fraction of workers in the HRS leaving the labor force at age 65 is half as large as studies in the 1970s indicated, while the proportion leaving at age 62 is twice as large. These studies have raised interesting questions about the meaning and definition of retirement. For example, the age of retirement was found to be higher if it is based on the age at which people report themselves to be completely or partially retired, rather than on hours or weeks of work. HRS analyses are part of a growing body of research seeking to characterize the influence that public and private pension poli- cies, both in the United States and abroad, may have on the retirement decisions of millions of individuals. One innovative aspect of the HRS involves asking participants about matters such as life expectancy, bequests, and future work plans. For the most part, people’s expectations in these areas align with what eventually happens. For example, HRS data show a strong relation- ship between measures of expected retirement and actual retirement. Perhaps, these data sug- gest, measures of retirement expectations are a useful policy barometer for future behavior. Further, different groups’ expectations about working past age 65 may be changing (Figure 2-9). People ages 51 to 56 with different levels of education were asked at three time points about the chances that they would be working full-time after reaching age 65. The results suggest that an increasing proportion of people in their early to mid-50s expect to be working full-time after age 65. The differences between 1992 and 2004 are striking, and the highest FIG. 2-9 expectation of working full-time after age 65, by education: respondents ages 51-56 in 1992, 1998, and 2004 (Percent expecting to work after age 65) Male Less Than High School Degree Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Male High School Degree Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Male Some College Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1992 1998 2004 Male College Degree Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Male Less Than High School Degree Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Male High School Degree Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Male Some College Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1992 1998 2004 Male College Degree Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Male Less Than High School Degree Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Male High School Degree Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Male Some College Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 1992 1998 2004 Male College Degree Female 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: HRS 1992, 1998, and 2004.